Paraíso Socialista

Caros Canzanaz,

O post de hoje é mais seca, mas sem dúvida importante!

Leiam este bocadinho das ideias de um investidor Indiano que conheço (não Ringo! Não é o Pabrai! É Rahul Saraogi!).

É sempre bom ouvir (neste caso, ler) a perspectiva de alguém que habita numa realidade muito diferente da nossa - Mumbai, India:

"I travelled to Europe over the holidays. It is probably one of the stupidest things I've done in a long time. I left warm, pleasant and cheap Asia and travelled to cold, inhospitable and ridiculously expensive Europe. I travelled at a time when even the Europeans don't want to be in Europe. To add to it, Europe experienced its coldest December in forty or fifty years in 2009.
Some justification is in order. The holidays in the US, although cold, have a spirit to them. One can feel the bounce in people's steps and can see a cheer on their faces. The holiday spirit can be distinctly felt in the air. I guess I was longing for that holiday spirit, not having spent the holidays in the US in a long time. But since, I was recently in the US; I decided to head to Europe to experience that spirit.
I have some news from the old world. If there ever was any holiday spirit, it is dead and buried. People in Europe are sad, sullen, cheerless and downright depressed. People in Europe just don't want to work, period.
Things in Europe are absolutely and ridiculously expensive. I like spending time in grocery stores when I travel to get a feel for the place I am visiting. When Europeans are not rushing through their grocery purchases (trying to beat the 6.00 PM store closing deadline after work), they are getting fleeced on whatever they are buying.
With unemployment in the double digits in Europe, it is hard to imagine how anyone would stay alive in Europe without dole from the state. The cost structure of Europe is completely out of whack
There is absolutely NO WAY that anything will be manufactured in Europe 10 years from today. If one thinks that the US is non-competitive then Europe is not even in the game.
It is true that Europe manufactures a lot today. Whatever it manufactures gets sold at 3 or 4 times the price of competing products made in India or China. This is just not sustainable. As primary demand shifts to emerging countries, they will develop a home market advantage and manufacturing will have to move there. As critical mass is achieved in product after product in emerging countries, industries will have no option but to shut down in Europe. If Europe puts up protectionist barriers, the relative standard of living there will get decimated.
The coming decade is going to see a mega de-industrialization of Europe. Those European companies that want to survive will see the light and move manufacturing to emerging countries while their peers get destroyed by competitors from emerging countries.
If you manufacture anything in Europe, you should seriously look east."


FORAM AVISADOS!

Grande abraço a todos